NFL 2006 Super Bowl Prediction

So far my predictions for the post-season have been about as accurate as my predictions during the season. But you have play things to the buzzer, right? So who will win the Super Bowl?

Short answer: Colts.

Long answer: the Colts.

The Bear offensive problems are well documented and oft discussed. They are capable of putting up a lot of points. It is sometimes forgotten that for the first month or so of the season, when Grossman was Good Rex every game, the Bears were the highest scoring team in the league. But that was September. Grossman hasn't had a game when he's been Good Rex for 60 minutes since then. So when the passing game is on, they can keep up with the best offensive teams, including Indy. But the rest of the time, it falls to the defense.

And the Bear defense, while very good, is living somewhat on reputation. They showed a clear decline toward the end of the season and are capable of giving up a lot of points. They've lost a couple of key players to injury, and that has left exploitable gaps in the defense. They are particularly vulnerable in the secondary, and the Colts have some some ability at deep passing.

For the Colts, the offense may not be as splashy or out of this world as it was in recent years, but it's still quite good. They can take on any defense the league can dish up, and deal with it. Ask New England, who some will argue is a better defense than Chicago's.

Finally, let's face it, the NFC stinks. It's so bad a conference, the second best team was 10-6. One or both of the AFC wild card teams would have had an excellent chance of winning the NFC. The Bears may have been 13-3, but in the four games against the AFC they were 2-2, and only one of those wins (against the Bills) was a game that reinforced the notion that the Bears can hang with the AFC.

The game won't be a blowout. This isn't San Diego-San Francisco. The Bear defense will have success against Manning and the Colt offense and will keep Chicago in the game. But that just puts the pressure on Grossman to step up and win it, and he won't. I'm thinking it will be a more like a Patriot win, 4 points or so. Let's call it 21-17.